The End of an Era?
We hear much talk these days of an era ending. But which era? The pandemic might present a 'Berlin Wall' moment, a historical landmark that is hard to chart in real time - does it mark the end of an era of complacency, democratic drift, and neoliberal excess? Or is it the end of democracy's decades-long dominance as a political system with unrivalled legitimacy? Chancellor Merkel's departure presents a sense of new horizons and challenges for both Germany and the EU. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan means different ends to different people - of post-9/11 overreach, of neo-imperialism, of US pre-eminence, or an entire model of state-building. Tunisia's turbulence may mark the end of the Arab Spring's last hope for a full democratic transition. The sharp decline in internet freedom, and the craven concessions made by big tech to authoritarian governments, marks the definitive end of the 90s belief in its wholesale liberating power, as evidenced in Apple and Google's action to remove opposition leader Aleksei Navalny's SmartVoting app from their stores, reportedly under Kremlin pressure as the government lost support before Russia's recent elections - described as “a shameful act of political censorship.”
The end of an era can mean rebirth as much as decline; throwing off the shackles of incrementalism and small fixes. The current 'unsettlement' of long-settled structures, understandings, and assumptions also allows us to consider the big fixes for our democratic systems in ways that would have been unthinkable mere years ago. Indeed, as Richard Youngs observes of Europe, "grassroots democracy is thriving", and we just saw the Budapest Forum for Building Sustainable Democracies take place. Worldwide we are re-thinking representation, federalism, and independent institutuons, as 3 new policy briefs explore. New blog posts look at everything from reconsidering the expansion of executive power, how to achieve more effective parliaments, how to better regulate emergency powers, and whether democracy means anything if inequality thrives.
In today's update we're highlighting:
- Freedom House Report Freedom on the Net 2021: The Global Drive to Control Big Tech
- Election analyses - Germany, Canada, Russia
- Policy recap for International Day of Democracy
- New podcast on democracy in Tunisia
- Additional items in the Super-Blog
- Beyond Covid Our #WithWoj Campaign in Support of Prof. Sadurski
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⚡ Freedom on the Net 2021 Report: The Global Drive to Control Big Tech
"This is the 11th consecutive year of global decline in internet freedom", as stated in the annual assessment of internet freedom released on 21 September. While good-faith attempts have been made by some democratic states to regulate the technology industry, others have exerted their authority over digital platforms, forcing businesses to comply with censorship and surveillance. The Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated this trend with the introduction of contact tracing apps and vaccine mandates/passes with minimal safeguards to abuse, often resulting in the violation of the right to privacy. Governments also continually cited the pandemic to justify the suppression of critical speech and the censorship of unfavorable news online.
Upon presenting its key findings, the report provides recommendations, to policymakers, companies and civil societies, for regulatory approaches that would both protect human rights online and preserve a free and open internet.
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⚡ Germany: The End of the Merkel Era
On 26 September Germany will go to the polls to elect a new government, leading to a new chancellor for the first time in 16 years. The current polling indicates that the SPD, under its popular Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz, appears on track to be the largest party in the new Bundestag. This would have huge repercussions for the European Union, where the EPP, the center-right political family in which the incumbent CDU/CSU sits, has been dominant for the past two decades. And despite running in third place, the Greens’ poll numbers indicate a very good chance of them playing a key role in forming the new German government after the election.
"For a country where politics is usually a staid affair, this election is shaping up to be unpredictable: a contest that could result in half a dozen different coalition permutations. The constant, however, is that under any of the most likely possibilities, policymaking in Germany will remain centrist and consensus-oriented."
Also check out these podcasts:
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⚡ Canada: Trudeau's Snap Federal Election
Despite the decision to call a snap election during a pandemic, which angered many voters, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party will form Canada's next government following a tightly contested general election on 20 September. But the incumbent failed to upgrade minority government to a majority, with voter turnout near historic lows despite the expansion of special voting arrangements. Trudeau's gamble may not have paid off, but we already have a wealth of reflection on long-lasting lessons to take from this election:
- Article Mike PAL, 'A Pandemic Federal Election: Democracy Under Conditions of Emergency' Ottawa Law Review, Vol. 53, No. 1 (15 September 2021)
- Blog Post Ann DICKIE & Sanjay RUPARELIA, 'Early lessons on electoral participation and modernizing elections after the pandemic' Policy Options (20 September 2021)
- Blog Post Grant WYETH, ‘Canada's early elections’ Election Watch (15 September 2021)
- Blog Post Hannah GIBB & Valere GASPARD, 'How crises impact voter turnout in federal elections' Policy Options (14 September 2021)
- Policy WORLD POLITICS REVIEW, ‘Can Trudeau’s Liberals Muddle Through in Canada’s Elections?’ (15 September 2021)
- Podcast ‘The Angriest Election in Canadian History?’ The Agenda with Steve Paikin (13 September 2021)
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⚡ Russia: Parliamentary Election Results (Webinar Today)
"With more than 99% of the votes counted, Russia’s ruling United Russia party, which supports the president Vladimir Putin, appears poised to maintain a constitutional majority in Russia’s state parliament." However, accusations of vote rigging is prominent as online voting results flipped races in eight of 15 Moscow districts that appeared to be going against the Kremlin’s preferred candidates. The European Union, Britain and the United States have all condemned the vote, positing it was held on annexed Ukrainian territory (in Crimea) under conditions not conducive to free and fair proceedings.
- Andrew ROTH, 'Pro-Putin party wins majority in Russian elections despite declining support' The Guardian (20 September 2021)
To further decipher what the election results mean in Putin's Russia, and how the international community will perceive the elections given the absence of international election observers, IFES is organising a webinar today:
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⚡ Recapping on International Day of Democracy
In case you missed last Wednesday's International Democracy Day, here's a list of analyses published during the week, highlighting the valuable work of international, political pundits/organisations which continue to cast light upon global democratic issues that are engendered or exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic:
And check out 3 new Policy Briefs from the Melbourne Forum on Constitution-Building, co-organised each year by International IDEA and the Constitution Transformation Network:
- ⚡Tom Gerald DALY, ‘Beyond Representation in Pandemic Responses: Independent and International Institutions: Constitutional INSIGHTS No. 8’ (15 September 2021)
- ⚡ Cheryl SAUNDERS, ‘How Federations Responded to Covid-19 : Constitutional INSIGHTS No. 7’ (15 September 2021)
- ⚡Charmaine RODRIGUES, ‘Legal Approaches to Responding to Emergencies: Covid-19 as a Case Study: Constitutional INSIGHTS No. 6’ (15 September 2021)
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⚡ New Podcast: Tunisia's Popular Authoritarian
CSIS: Babel: Translating the Middle East 'Tunisia's Popular Authoritarian' (21 September 2021)
This week on Babel, Jon speaks with Dr. Monica Marks, a professor of Middle East politics at NYU Abu Dhabi who has been thinking about Tunisia for almost 15 years. They discuss Tunisian President Kais Saied's recent moves to consolidate power, why Tunisians seem to support him, what's at stake for Tunisia's democracy, and what role Western donors and institutions can play in the country. Then, Jon, Will Todman, and Caleb Harper continue the conversation about the nature of popular authoritarianism and how we should think about popular despots in Tunisia and the rest of the Arab world.
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⚡ Key Additional Updates on COVID-DEM
COVID-DEM is updated daily - here are a number of additional updates:
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⚡ New Blog Posts
Additional items in the Super-Blog include:
- Richard Mackenzie-Gray SCOTT, ‘Rebalancing upstream and downstream scrutiny of government during national emergencies’ UKCLA Blog (21 September 2021)
- Carmen AGUILERA-CARNERERO, ‘Polarization And Disinformation Spreading In Spain’ CARR Blog (20 September 2021)
- ⚡ Tariro SEKERAMAYI, ‘The South African local government elections and the COVID-19 pandemic’ AfricLaw (20 September 2021)
- ⚡ Alison SCHAFER, ‘Every Day is an International Democracy Day’ Democracy Speaks Blog (15 September 2021)
- John STOEHR, ‘We Do Not Have a Public Health Crisis. We Have a Crisis of Law and Order’ Public Seminar (15 September 2021)
- Elsa Leromain & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, ‘COVID and voting: how turnout in the 2020 French local elections fell’ LSE COVID-19 Blog (13 September 2021)
- Sergio Ricardo QUIROGA, ‘Argentina's government has lost credibility, risking its chances in forthcoming elections’ The Loop (9 September 2021)
And new items in the IACL-AIDC BLOG Symposium: COVID-19 and the Future of Constitutionalism:
- Ittai BAR-SIMAN-TOV, ‘Legislatures in the COVID-19 Crisis’ IACL-AIDC Blog (21 September 2021)
- Eugenio VELASCO-IBARRA, ‘COVID-19: Federalism and the Constitution’ IACL-AIDC Blog (16 September 2021)
- Iain CAMERON & Anna Jonsson CORNELL, ‘Countering the Spread of COVID-19 by Means of Recommendations and its Constitutional Implications’ IACL-AIDC Blog (14 September 2021)
- Conor CASEY, ‘Thinking About Executive Power Post-Pandemic’ IACL-AIDC Blog (9 September 2021)
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⚡ Beyond Covid - We're Still #WithWoj
Prof. Wojciech Sadurski, one of the most vocal international critics of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) government in Poland since 2015, has been subjected to a long-running campaign of legal harassment involving multiple lawsuits aimed at silencing him. This state campaign against Prof. Sadurski is a stark example of SLAPP: Strategic Litigation Against Public Participation. This week, on 22 and 23 September, Prof. Sadurski has had to attend 2 different hearings for different cases against him - see an update and more information here. We at COVID-DEM denounce this action by the Polish state in the strongest terms. Show Prof. Sadurski you support him too - post a message on social media using the hashtag #WithWoj.
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COVID-DEM is You
Every day we work with people worldwide to build this platform for improving our understanding of how the pandemic is challenging democracy, and the many ways we can defend and improve our democracies.
Our sincere thanks to every one of you who has helped us to build COVID-DEM into what it is today. Don't hesitate to send us your work and suggestions, to democraticdecay@gmail.com or through our online form.
Dr Tom Gerald Daly
Director, DEM-DEC
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Tom is the creator and Director of DEM-DEC and an academic and consultant in the area of public law, human rights, and democracy-building. Find out more here.
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