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Newsletter 140 31 January 2022
Back for 2022
and Remaining Alert
After a longer than usual hiatus, COVID-DEM is back for 2022. As we face into Year 3 of the pandemic, we find ourselves at an odd juncture. For many, the pandemic is over - they want to stop talking about it, thinking about it, worrying about it. They want it to be over. Early in 2020, when we were compiling context reading to help understand the crisis, we noted that many books on the 1918-20 influenza pandemic puzzled over why it was virtually forgotten in the years and decades that followed (see e.g. here and here). We now have a better sense of why people worldwide wanted to simply leave it in the past.
We are all weary. Yet, for those focused on democracy, this weariness is a real danger: we might be done with the pandemic, but the pandemic is not done with us. Even in the best-case scenario of Covid settling into a relatively mild endemic seasonal disease, it has infected our laws, our regulations, government mindsets, and communities. If weariness about the pandemic's democratic impact turns to apathy, we all lose. This year, we need to work to draw the big lessons from COVID-19 together and sharpen our understanding of what it has revealed to us, about both democratic brittleness and resilience, about both our fears for the democratic future and realising our democratic hopes. That said, with the immediacy of the pandemic waning, we will be striking a balance, focusing on issues beyond the pandemic in our Beyond Covid sections.
In this first update for 2022, we're highlighting:
- What's on Our Minds for 2022
- European Democracy Hub focused on democracy support and challenges
- Exceptius Project analysing Covid emergency responses in 32 European states
- Blog Posts recently added to our COVID-DEM Super-Blog
- Events & Recordings on Covid and democracy
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What's On Our Minds for 2022
There is so much to think about as 2022 ends its first month. Here's what's at the front of our minds:
Elections Crucial elections will be happening in a range of states, including the USA, Australia, France, Hungary, India, Brazil, Kenya and the Philippines. Some incumbents, like France's President Macron, are expected to win. Others, like US President Biden or Australia's PM Scott Morrison, may get a shellacking (to use former President Obama's memorable term). In India, five state elections will help to illuminate support for the weakened BJP and Prime Minister Modi. Many elections, such as those in the USA, Brazil, and Hungary, are viewed as dictating the trajectory of the democratic system itself, beyond mere policy changes. The Gambian parliamentary elections will present a further test of its fragile democratic transition. Listed under blogs below, Teresa Violante discusses Omicron and the Portuguese elections held just yesterday 30 January.
Tipping Points In states without major elections in 2022 (and underscoring that changes of leadership are only part of the picture), we'll be keeping an eye on tipping points. Some obvious examples include Poland and Sri Lanka, where years-long patterns of democratic decay - accelerated by Covid - are now entering a phase of more brazen assaults on the democratic system, including hacking opposition communications.
Democratic Innovations From citizens' assemblies to online parliaments to remote voting, we'll continue to track how participation-enhancing innovations worldwide in response to the pressures of Covid, are developed or rolled back.
Constitutional Change We'll be paying close attention to major constitutional reform happening worldwide, including the ongoing constitution-drafting process in Chile, which offers lessons for the entire world on the struggle to achieve a political settlement that speaks to today's major challenges, not least climate crisis and the systems that have given rise to it, as well as frameworks for emergencies more widely.
Summit for Democracy We'll be following what concrete outcomes come our of the Biden administration's first summit in December 2021, and the actions to be taken before the second summit takes place at the end of 2022.
China With the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February and the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party taking place in November, all eyes will be on China this year - even more than usual. President Xi Jinping is expected to seek an unprecedented third five-year term, which would further consolidate his power and copperfasten aggressive policies to counter the power and influence of democratic states.
Academic & policy research and projects We'll continue to follow a range of projects worldwide focused on how the pandemic is affecting democracy. So do send us your research and initiatives to feature in the newsletter.
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European Democracy Hub
The European Union in 2021 promised that it would support a “human rights-based recovery” from COVID-19 worldwide. The pandemic looms large in the first annual report on democracy support in the EU, launched on 25 January 2022, identifying major policy developments in 2021 and suggesting crucial issues to watch in 2022:
"In 2021, European governments and EU institutions strengthened many aspects of their democracy support, creating new initiatives and setting aside billions of euros to tackle mounting challenges to democratic norms. Yet, clear weaknesses remain in European democracy support, both within and beyond Europe"
The annual report has been produced under the European Democracy Hub, which acts as a focal point for work on democracy, bringing together analysts and policymakers engaged with EU democracy support and democratic challenges in Europe. It is a joint initiative of Carnegie Europe and the European Partnership for Democracy.
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Exceptius Project
The EXCEPTIUS project analyses exceptional decision-making in 32 European countries. Through interdisciplinary knowledge, the project contributes to the study of democratic resilience by assessing why some democratic systems prove more resilient to crises and which political reforms increase such resilience. In a recent interview, creator Professor Clara Egger talks about how the project started,
Angel ANTONOVA, Interview: 'Democracy Despite Crisis' Democracy International (20 January 2022)
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Blog Posts
New blog posts uploaded to our Super-Blog in the new year (and very late last year) include:
Teresa VIOLANTE, 'Voting in the Pandemic' Verfassungsblog (28 January 2022)
Chris MONAGHAN, 'Party-gate as a Ground for Impeachment? Perhaps, But We Need to Modernise Impeachment Before It Is Fit For Purpose' UK Constitutional Law Association Blog (26 January 2022)
Joshua KURLANTZICK, 'How Inequality and Democratic Regression Have Made COVID-19 Worse' Council on Foreign Relations (20 January 2022)
Estelle CHAMBRAS, 'The green pass in France: A political hurdle' Lex-Atlas: Covid-19 (14 January 2022)
Ryan ARICK, 'A Light in the Dark: Opportunities for Strengthening Resilience in the Covid-Era between the Summits for Democracy' Power 3.0 (11 January 2022)
Emilia JAMES, 'In the Face of COVID and Authoritarianism, Democracy Persisted in 2021' Democracy Speaks (30 December 2021)
Andrew JONES, 'Boris Johnson and his problem with parties: the politics of new Covid-19 measures' Lex-Atlas: Covid-19 (21 December 2021)
Toomas Kaarel KOTKAS, 'The Domestic Use of the 'Covid-19 Pass' in Finland – Absurdities, Innovative Legal Interpretations, and Slow Legislating' Lex-Atlas: Covid-19 (20 December 2021)
Pierre DE VOS, 'On Rage, Distrust and COVID-19 Lockdowns: Why Vaccine Hesitancy is Irrational but Not Incomprehensible' Constituttionally Speaking (3 December 2021)
Beyond Covid
Our pick of additional blog posts includes:
Neslihan ÇETIN, 'Unconstitutional Constitutional Changes and President’s Term Limit Evasion: a Series of Constitutional Frauds in Turkey' ICONNECT Blog (23 January 2022)
Jennifer McCOY & Benjamin PRESS, 'What Happens When Democracies Become Perniciously Polarized?' Carnegie Endowment (18 January 2022)
Daniella LOCK & Tanzil CHOWDHURY, 'Expansions of Executive Power and Weakening of Democratic Safeguards in 2021' UK Constitutional Law Association Blog (17 January 2022)
Miguel SCHOR, 'American Exceptionalism and the Capitol Riot One Year Later' ICONNECT Blog (6 January 2022)
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Events, Webinars & Recordings
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COVID-DEM is You
Every day we work with people worldwide to build this platform for helping us understand how the pandemic is challenging and re-shaping democracy globally, and the many ways we can defend and improve our democracies. Our sincere thanks to every one of you who has helped us to develop COVID-DEM into what it is today. Don't hesitate to send us your work and suggestions, to coviddem@gmail.com or through our online form.
Dr Tom Gerald Daly
Director
Find out more about Tom here.
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