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Newsletter 137 2 December 2021
Omicron
Panic & Breaking Unhelpful Patterns
Until recently, we were starting to discern a change in the air about Covid. While cases were rising again in many states, vaccination drives had changed the game significantly - though far from universally, due to global vaccine inequity. Some were too soon to crow - The Economist offering that "Covid-19 is likely to fade away in 2022" in early November. In many ways, the Omicron variant has seemed to reveal that few deep lessons have been learnt from the Covid emergency by many governments and policymakers - knee-jerk panic reactions have punished South Africa (and southern African states) for assisting the world by identifying the variant before others. We desperately need to learn from the many, many mistakes made by governments in the earlier days of Covid - the knee-jerk reactions, the groupthink, the failure to achieve targeted policy responses that preserve maximal freedoms. There is no shortage of analysis setting these lessons out.
As 2021 comes close to an end, we see many scholars and policymakers reflecting on what lessons, if any have been learned - see e.g. Benjamim Bratton warning the world against "the 'Florida model' of laissez-faire and denialist biopolitics", discussion of rebalancing scrutiny of government during national emergencies, an excellent overview of 18 months of COVID-19 legislation in England, reflections on how President Bolsonaro can be held accountable for his role in one of the highest death counts in the world, and a lucid appeal to learn the lessons of the recent past from Florida
In this Update we're highlighting:
- New analysis of the Omicron variant and the (biased) southern African travel bans
- Bingham Centre and BIICL reports on data-driven governance during a pandemic
- New blog post on Bolsonaro's pandemic crimes
- Upcoming events in relation to the Summit for Democracy
- Additional items in our Super-Blog and Policy Hub
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Omicron - A Variant of (Unequal) Concern
When scientists in Botswana and South Africa identified the new Covid-19 Omicron variant, they moved quickly to disseminate that information internationally. Two days after (last Friday), the World Health Organization (WHO) classified Omicron as a “variant of concern” owing to its wide range of mutations. In return, many countries, including the US, UK, Canada, some EU states and Asian nations, rushed to shut their borders to South Africa and other countries in the region. This hasty, biased, and arguably pre-mature restrictive response is a brutal blow to Southern African economies and morale, considering it's still early days - information about the variant is highly limited and the origin of the variant is unclear - and that it has also been detected in other countries including the UK, Germany, Australia, Israel, and Hong Kong.
"Our scientists and transparent leadership in managing Covid-19 should be celebrated and not punished as we learn to live responsibly with Covid-19. Identifying the new variant does not mean it originates from South Africa and punishing us for transparency may disincentivise other countries from being more transparent."
WHO's Africa director Matshidiso Moeti said on Sunday: "With the Omicron variant now detected in several regions of the world, putting in place travel bans that target Africa attacks global solidarity." Instead of imposing knee-jerk travel bans that are not backed by science, Moeti called on countries to “take a risk-based and scientific approach and put in place (or reinforce current) measures which can limit its possible spread”, i.e., wearing masks, social distancing, ramping vaccination and booster rollouts, etc. Countries with higher vaccination rates should also provide better aid to boost vaccine supplies in (African) regions where the people have long suffered from (vaccine) inequality and subsequently much lower immunisation rates.
Jalelah ABU BAKAR, 'Omicron variant more easily transmissible, but too early to tell if new restrictions necessary: Experts' Channel News Asia (2 December 2021)
BBC NEWS, Covid: South Africa's president calls for lifting of Omicron travel bans' (30 November 2021)
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, 'Omicron Travel Bans Will Hinder U.S. Africa Policy' (30 November 2021)
Irene CHARNLEY, 'Now is not the time for knee-jerk Western responses to Omicron – it is the time for all hands on deck' Daily Maverick (30 November 2021)
Michelle NICHOLS, 'U.N. chief concerned about southern Africa isolation over Omicron' Reuters (30 November 2021)
PURSUIT (UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE), 'What We Do (and Don't) Know About Omicron' (30 November 2021)
Anthony ZWI, 'Travel bans won't stop Omicron variant from spreading' Channel News Asia (29 November 2021)
Melissa DAVEY, 'Omicron in Australia: what does the new Covid variant mean, and how worried should we be?' The Guardian (29 November 2021)
Promit MUKHERJEE, 'S.African doctor says patients with Omicron variant have "very mild" symptoms' Reuters (29 November 2021)
ASSOCIATED PRESS, 'World Health Organization criticizes travel bans on southern African countries' Politico (28 November 2021)
REUTERS, 'South Africa says it is being punished for early COVID variant detection' (27 November 2021)
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Governance, Rule of Law & Data-Driven Responses in Public Health Emergencies
Last week, the Bingham Centre and the British Institute of International and Comparative Law (BIICL) released a series of new reports under the ongoing project The Role of Good Governance and the Rule of Law in Building Public Trust in Data-Driven Responses to Public Health Emergencies.
Throughout the pandemic, states have relied strongly on data-driven approaches to justify far-reaching measures including closing entire business sectors and categories of travel, curtailing personal liberties and requiring compliance with new technologies for contact tracing and social distancing. While it is arguably too soon to be implementing harsh restrictions such as complete travel bans in light of Omicron, it is important that governments learn from past mistakes and implement measures commensurate with risks calculated based on accurate, comprehensive and transparent data.
"To be effective, such measures must be internationally co-ordinated, nationally adopted and adhered to by a high proportion of the public. Trust underpins both national adoption and public adherence: trust in international institutions, in the measures, and their scientific foundations."
See the recent publications below:
Richard Mackenzie-Gray SCOTT, ‘Rebalancing Upstream and Downstream Scrutiny of Government during National Emergencies’ (27 November 2021)
Jean-Pierre GAUCI, Richard Mackenzie-Gray SCOTT & Jan VAN ZYL SMIT, ‘Rule of Law and Good Governance Principles Applicable to Data-Driven Responses to Public Health Emergencies’ (27 November 2021)
Constantinos YIALLOURIDES, ‘Global Health Governance: The Legal Duty of States to Cooperate in the Fight Against Pandemic Disease’ (26 November 2021)
Jean-Pierre GAUCI, Richard Mackenzie-Gray SCOTT, Irene PIETROPAOLI, Jan VAN ZYL SMIT & Constantinos YIALLOURIDES, ‘Roadmap for Reform of International Legal Frameworks to Strengthen Cooperation in Responses to Public Health Emergencies’ (26 November 2021)
Lilian EDWARDS, Keri GRIEMAN, Emma IRVING & Irene PIETROPAOLI, ‘Rapid Evidence Review of Data-driven Responses to Public Health Emergencies’ (26 November 2021)
Lilian EDWARDS & Keri GRIEMAN, ‘‘No jab, no job’? Employment law and mandatory vaccination requirements in the UK’ (26 November 2021)
Lilian EDWARDS, Keri GRIEMAN & Emma IRVING, ‘‘Venue Check-In’ or ‘Presence’ Apps’ (26 November 2021)
Richard Mackenzie-Gray Scott, ‘Judicial Scrutiny of COVID-19 Regulations in the UK: Addressing Deference to Data-Driven Decision-Making in Human Rights Cases’ (26 November 2021)
Lilian EDWARDS & Emma IRVING, ‘Policy Brief: Good Governance and Rule of Law Principles for Data-Driven Technologies in Public Health Emergencies’ (26 November 2021)
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Bolsonaro's Crimes
- Will Justice Ever Be Served?
While southern African nations (undeservingly) prepare to face a rerun of economic depression due to the somewhat gratuitous travel bans triggered by Omicron, Brazil's autocratic President Bolsonaro has come through unscathed despite the egregious failures in his pandemic response.
"According to the Commission of Parliamentary Inquiry (CPI) of the Brazilian Senate, Bolsonaro committed at least nine crimes, but will he ever face justice?"
Read the full analysis below:
Octávio Luiz Motta FERRAZ, ‘Crime and (lack of) Punishment in Brazil’s Pandemic Response’ LAC19 (25 November 2021)
And ICYMI:
Blog post Emilio Peluso Neder MEYER & Thomas BUSTAMANTE, ‘A Portrait of Bolsonaro’s Crimes Against Humanity: The Legislative Investigative Committee Report on the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil’ Verfassungsblog (5 November 2021)
Media Analysis ABC NEWS, ‘Brazilian Senate committee approves report calling for indictment of President Jair Bolsonaro over COVID-19 handling’ (27 October 2021)
Media Analysis HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH, ‘The Toll of Bolsonaro’s Disastrous Covid-19 Response’ (27 October 2021)
Media Analysis Tom PHILLIPS, ‘Mass protests in Brazil call for Jair Bolsonaro’s impeachment’ The Guardian (3 October 2021)
Media Analysis Oliver STUENKEL, ‘Stalemate: The Main Outcome of Bolsonaro’s Day of Protest’ Americas Quarterly (8 September 2021)
Media Analysis NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO, ‘Brazil's Bolsonaro Rallies His Followers Against The Courts In A Major Demonstration' (7 September 2021)
Media Analysis THE BRAZILIAN REPORT, ‘Bolsonaro impeachment now supported by 58 percent of Brazilians’ (19 August 2021)
Blog post Octávio Luiz Motta FERRAZ, ‘The crimes of the President: Bolsonaro should be held liable, but will he?’ LAC19 (6 August 2021)
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Upcoming Events
On 9-10 December, President Biden will host the first of two Summits for Democracy, which will bring together leaders from government, civil society, and the private sector to set forth an affirmative agenda for democratic renewal and to tackle the greatest threats faced by democracies today through collective action. In the run up to the main event, several precursor events - though not part of the official Summit - will take place next week, generating valuable preliminary input and conversations on democracy which will serve to broaden discussions during the Summit:
Tuesday International IDEA: ‘Global Democracy Coalition Forum’ - 7 December 2021 (All-day event)
Tuesday Asia Foundation: ‘Making Democracy Deliver in the Indo-Pacific - A Summit For Democracy Side-Event’ - 7 December 2021, 9.00-10.30 (ET)
Wednesday National Endowment for Democracy: ‘Rebuilding Democratic Momentum’ - 8 December 2021, 12.30-13.45 (EST)
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Blog Posts
Additional blog posts uploaded to our Super-Blog include:
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COVID-DEM is You
Every day we work with people worldwide to build this platform for helping us understand how the pandemic is challenging and re-shaping democracy globally, and the many ways we can defend and improve our democracies. Our sincere thanks to every one of you who has helped us to develop COVID-DEM into what it is today. Don't hesitate to send us your work and suggestions, to coviddem@gmail.com or through our online form.
Dr Tom Gerald Daly
Director
Find out more about Tom here.
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